Seconds Out, Round One

Boris won 114 votes in the first round of the Conservative Party leadership contest (and co-incidentally the contest for the prime ministership of the UK. His nearest rival, the foreign secretary with the name that it’s easy to make a mess of, got a mere 43.

Image result for results of first round tory leadership

Mark Harper, Andrea Leadsom and Esther the Unliked, who came last with only 9 votes, were vanquished.

Image result for results of first round tory leadership

Scores were as follows:

• Boris Johnson 114
• Jeremy Hunt 43
• Michael Gove 37
• Dominic Raab 27
• Sajid Javid 23 (despite being backed by that well-known winner, the Colonel)
• Matt Hancock 20
• Rory Stewart 19

Eliminated: 

• Mark Harper 10
• Andrea Leadsom 11
• Esther McVey 9

It seems pretty certain that, unless he does something catastrophic and loses most of his support, Johnson will be one of the finalists.

I imagine though, that Hunt will partially catch up with him along the way. Already I can imagine that Mr Harper’s votes may largely be transferred to Hunt or Gove, McVey’s will almost certainly go to Boris, as will the majority of Leadsom’s

In the next round, I imagine that Hancock and Stewart will be eliminated, and probably Javid and Raab too. Rory’s votes likely to go to Hunt/Gove; Javid’s too. Hancock’s and Raab’s more likely to go to Boris.

My prediction (barring something really weird from Boris) is that he will go forward, against either Gove or ‘Unt, to the constituency of relatively elderly southern Tory voters, and win.

Image result for boris johnson

Meanwhile, Rory Stewart is threatening rebellion … (I put it down to the opium)

Ciaran Jenkins
Rory Stewart says if Boris Johnson locks the doors of parliament to get No Deal he will ‘bring him down’. 
Stewart says parliament will meet across the road at Methodist Central Hall and bring a Boris Johnson government down.

Whoever wins, I suspect that it is a fiction that the EU will reopen talks or change very much about the treaty that Theresa May signed with them, as this seems to suggest.

THIS COULD PUT YOU OFF YOUR SLEEP

Applies to the next permanently appointed Conservative Party Leader after Theresa May.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
4/1
Matthew Hancock
50/1
George Osborne
66/1
David Davis
9/2
David Lidington
50/1
Nicky Morgan
66/1
Boris Johnson
6/1
Liz Truss
50/1
Jesse Norman
66/1
Amber Rudd
9/1
Johnny Mercer
50/1
Liam Fox
66/1
Gavin Williamson
10/1
George Freeman
50/1
Ed Vaizey
80/1
Andrea Leadsom
10/1
Priti Patel
50/1
Owen Paterson
80/1
Ruth Davidson
12/1
Graham Brady
50/1
Grant Shapps
80/1
Michael Gove
12/1
Alan Mak
50/1
David Cameron
100/1
Jeremy Hunt
16/1
Chris Grayling
50/1
Anna Soubry
100/1
Philip Hammond
16/1
Stephen Crabb
50/1
Jo Johnson
100/1
Tom Tugendhat
16/1
Robert Halfon
66/1
Iain Duncan Smith
100/1
Justine Greening
16/1
Kwasi Kwarteng
66/1
Theresa Villiers
100/1
Dominic Raab
18/1
Nick Herbert
66/1
Adam Afriyie
100/1
Sajid Javid
25/1
Daniel Hannan
66/1
Ken Clarke
100/1
James Cleverly
25/1
Zac Goldsmith
66/1
Maria Miller
100/1
Penny Mordaunt
33/1
Michael Fallon
66/1
Ben Bradley
100/1
Greg Clark
33/1
Heidi Allen
66/1
Nigel Farage
100/1
Damian Green
33/1
Rishi Sunak
66/1
Nick Boles
100/1
Anne Milton
40/1
Tobias Ellwood
66/1
William Hague
150/1
Rory Stewart
40/1

 

Still, look on the bright side. There’s not a mention of this useless muppet, even thought they are looking at the likes of Nigel Farage as the next Tory leader.
!mudd&
One view is that no one wants the job until May has completely and utterly wrecked any chance of a deal of any sort. Someone (anyone) could then step in a make a show of making the best of a disastrous job.
Crashing out with no deal (which you’ll remember May said was better than a bad deal), will be a red line for Remainers in the Tory Party, of which there are many.
Alternatively, signing up for a deal that will mean that the UK remains in the single market, customs union, takes the EU’s directives in most areas, accepts rulings from the ECJ, and pays more or less what it pays now (but doesn’t get Farming subsidies, Academic subsidies, Social Fund subsidies, Infrastructure subsidies) will be unacceptable to the Tory Leavers, of which there are also many.
Surely that must happen later this year (October) when the deal has to be agreed between Barnier and May and sent out to parliaments across Europe, and of course the EU parliament, for 6 months of debate and discussion before ratification.
By that time something concrete about the Irish border and the Spanish-Gibraltar border will have to have been agreed. And as that is a near impossibility, I’d not put money on the Maybot surviving much longer than it all coming crashing down then.
I suspect that next year’s conference it will be more than slogans falling off the walls. and the P45 will be real.
Just for a laugh, we’d like to know who you think would make:
a) a serious next leader who could repair at least some of the mess she and Cameron left.
b) which of the above (or others) would make the best comedy leader.
c) which of them would be most likely to lead to Scotland voting to leave the ridiculous mess and possibly rejoining the EU as an independent country.