Laura Kuenssberg has just tweeted this illustration of the economic impact assessments that MPs have been allowed to see. Important to note forecasts are for a fifteen year period – and predict how much more slowly the economy would grow, not how much it would shrink, so they still expect growth, just a good bit less of it.
So, if you voted for Brexit, this is how much worse the pro-Brexit “Department for Exiting the EU predicts your future will be.
Scotland, were we to stay in the single market, which May has ruled out (on pain of the disgraced Liam Fox resigning… Yeah yeah, I know, anyone else would see that as a massive bonus, but what the hell???) would lose 2.5% of our growth. With some sort of Free Trade Deal, a very dubious possibility, we’d lose 6%, and if we work on WTO figures, the most likely scenario, 9%.
This is broadly in line with the conclusions of the Scottish government’s impact assessment which found that Scotland’s GDP would be 8.5% lower by 2030 than it would be if it stayed in the EU if Brexit resulted in the UK trading with Europe on WTO terms. It would be 6.1% lower with a free trade agreement, but only 2.7% lower if the UK stayed in the single market.
That’s in a country that voted 62-38 to REMAIN.
But, with the broad shoulders of Britain, and the strong and stable hands and legs and arms and possibly other bits of the Maybot… what chance does Barnier have?
Aye right… whatever.