IF YOU’RE CHAPPING DOORS

THIS MAY BE OF USE TO YOU

Image

Grateful thanks to Mr Turner.

**********

THE BLACK SALTIRE
@80_mcswan
Scotland s NHS is a key political battle.
Health care spending in:
Scotland is £2389 per person
In England £2006
In Wales £ 2150
GPs per 100,000 patients:
In Scotland 78
England 57
Wales 60
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Thanks to the Black Saltire and to Colin Dunn for the graphic.
Overall they predict a massive Tory win in England with 379 seats. Labour with 168 (which must surely see Corbyn being removed) are predicted to be a miserable second. Far from being the next Prime Minister Swinson will, at least on election day, lead the 4th largest party with 31 seats. How long before she is removed from that post is anyone’s guess. Nigel is not predicted to win a single seat. No change for Plaid or Greens. No polling in NI.
**********

45 thoughts on “IF YOU’RE CHAPPING DOORS”

      1. Fluffy got 24,177 votes a majority of 9,441 or 19.3%
        Union got 22,334 votes a majority of 5,643 or 10.9%

        So both quite difficult to remove.

        Like

    1. Not sure why they do this every year. It was an English parliament they were trying to blow up… Ok, joint king, but still.

      And people moan about the Orange Order and King Billy…

      Like

      1. We live close to a park where they had a bonfire and fireworks display. It was nightmarish for half an hour, now it’s only the occasional bang!

        Like

          1. Munguin, showing his usual concern for his people, locked himself and his fellow directors in his luxury suite with bottles of something nice and expensive and some ear plugs.

            I was washing the dishes!.

            Like

  1. On Tue 5 Nov 2019 at 19:09, MUNGUIN’S NEW REPUBLIC wrote:

    > trispw posted: “THIS MAY BE OF USE TO YOU Grateful thanks to Mr Turner. > ********** THE BLACK SALTIRE @80_mcswan Scotland s NHS is a key political > battle. Health care spending in: Scotland is £2389 per person In Eng” >

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Useful, thanks. I had a delivery driver complaining about Scotland’s high taxes ( ? ) so will print off a copy for him.

    I try to explain that MSM lies ! and one needs to search for the truth online…..

    Sad to see Aberdeen / shire shown as ‘tory’, need to work harder to get the message out.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Aberdeenshire West,definitely cap in hand territory.
    Still too many Scots who refuse to see the reality of future life in the UK under incompetent right wing Tory governments.
    Perhaps they like incompetence.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. The scary thing is that I’ve yet to hear anyone suggest for a second that Labour is going to win this, and only Swinson thinks that she will win it. Everyone else is laughing their arses off at that notion.

      This means that regardless of the vote in Scotland we are likely to be stuck for the next ten years, with a right wing Tory government that we voted against… and out of the EU.

      What kind of hell is that

      Liked by 1 person

  4. I’ve had several online questionnaires over the past week or so asking me about voting intentions. I’ve no idea how Flavible Politics do their polling or how reliable they are, because I never heard of them before. I shall now go and see if James Kelly has anything to say about them.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. You trispw might find this ‘interesting’ or not. I am not entirely sure what I make of it myself.

    Scottish Skier, an unfairly maligned – by me – regular contributer to ‘Scotland Goes Pop’ came up with a set of numbers, which, after you run the percentages through electoral calculus arrives at a seat prediction. I would be obliged if any knowledgeable statistician or whoever could look over my workings and tell me whether, methodolically speaking it stand up or is a Hindenberg.

    The idea is to take the percentages from opinion polls, run them through electoral calculus and end up with seat predictions – using their very friendly ‘Scottish’ section.

    To save this being too long, I am showing in the left hand column, the figures that Scottish Skier has arrived at over the last three polls and what, in the right hand column, how that translates, according to electoral calculus, into seats.

    So:

    Party averaged % vote Seats at W/M

    Green 4 0

    Brexit 6 0

    Liberal 11 4

    Labour 12 1

    Tories 20 3

    SNP 45 51

    There are a few things to say about that. You’d have thought the Liberal and Labour results should have been reversed, you’d have thought the SNP 45% should have won them circa 45% of the seats, rather than the slam dunk that fptp gives them.

    I would be genuinely interested in knowing if there is an obvious flaw in what I have done here. Perhaps wiser heads than mine can advise?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Your figures are correct as far as they go but I think Scottish Skiers polling numbers are from a very small sample.

      Also there are two flaws in the methodology IMHO are
      a) it assumes a Uniform swing across all seats from the previous 2017 result,
      b) the SNP vote stayed at home in 2017

      So if the SNP vote turns out then there will be an asymmetric shift in favour of the SNP and the number of seats will adjust upwards accordingly.

      So some good some bad, unfortunately no easy answer. We need to get out the vote.
      OTOH Electoral Calculus has the SNP on 48 seats on a UK sample of 11,304.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Ah… much more detailed analysis, Kangaroo.

        I’d add that it’s very early days.

        There are innumerable holes that parties can fall into. Jake the Pratt fell into a big one yesterday. Some holes will make no difference. Some will make a big difference.

        Many people will vote for their party no matter what.

        Some will be disgusted by something that one of their local candidates has said or done (hence the removal of Thomson).

        The tv debates may swing some. Johnson is unlikely to do well, becasue he’s a poor speaker under pressure.

        May started off away in front last time, but then she got out and about and on tv and made such a mess of it (they had to substitute Rudd for her at one point) that she lost her majority.

        Why Swinson would want to be a part of that beats me. She’s not appealing in any way and has shown that with a touch interviewer she looks lost.

        Polling can only be taken as a rough guide in any case.

        I’d be interested in what James says.

        Like

      2. Thanks for that critique. I had kind of assumed that the final numbers took account of (by seat) uniqueness, given the somewhat strange Liberal / Labour outcome. Which would be inexplicable on a uniform swing model?

        48 seats would be grand.

        This prediction business is tougher than I thought. If anyone is interested, I’d intend to keep applying electoral calculus to opinion poll percentages. ’cause seats won or lost is the name of the game?

        Liked by 1 person

    2. Douglas, the figures don’t look unlike the ones at which Flavible has arrived.

      Libs 4 (Flav 5)
      Tories 3 ( Flav 4)
      Labour 1 (Flav 1)
      SNP 41 (Flav 41)

      There wouldn’t seem to be a flaw (except the one I made in typing this up… pointed out by the very highly paid head of proof reading. Panda Paws!!! I thank her for pointing his out. It is now corrected).

      Like

      1. “There wouldn’t seem to be a flaw.”

        well the Flav figures suggest there are 61 constituencies in Scotland which is a bit flawed 🙂

        But otherwise I’m liking either set of figures.

        Liked by 1 person

          1. except it actually says in the OP

            “SNP 51 (Flav 51)”

            are you arguing with the proof reader? I’ve a good mind to hand in my notice. Do you know where to send the arrears of pay? 🙂

            Liked by 1 person

            1. Munguin says if you resign outside of your period of contract, then there is a penalty.

              Now, do you want to owe Munguin £175,000?

              Incidentally, I had a look at Munguin’s records and it appears that any back pay has to be paid over to Mr Munguin… I didn’t know that was your name too…

              🙂

              PS: I’ve corrected my error with a grovelling apology. 🙂

              Like

  6. O/t but hopefully of interest. Spain has issued an international arrest warrant for sedition for Clara Ponsati, St Andrews Professor and former Catalan minister. She’ll be arrested on Thursday and transferred to Edinburgh Sheriff Court – bail will be applied for.

    She’s 62 and facing 10 years in prison. Spain recently sentenced men who gang raped (though they called it sexual abuse) an unconscious fourteen year old to shorter terms. One of the already jailed ministers is serving next to someone who killed and dismembered his victim and he also has a shorter sentence than the minister.

    I hope folk are as angry as me. I have no opinion on whether Catalonia should be independent but I’m damn well of the opinion they should be allowed to choose.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. We can understand but not agree of course,with the Spanish state wanting to suppress independence for it’s cash cow province.
      However,the way it treats it’s citizens (European citizens) is completely unacceptable and must be dealt with by the European courts or the courts of the countries dealing with the Arrest Warrants.
      Holding referendums in Spain which the establishment does not agree with is not a criminal offence in any other EU country,AFAIK,and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are in breach of EU laws by so doing.
      The dominance of right wing politics throughout the democratic world has lead to decisions ending up in courts for judges to decide.
      It should not be this way.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I recall that Terry talked about this.

        In fact internal constitution matters are not a matter for the EU. It is the Council of Europe, an entirely separate institution, which should be looking into this behaviour.

        I agree that it is not perfect for courts to decide on these matters, but governments which cannot be relied upon to follow the law, for example the UK government, but be made to do so,

        If Britain leaves the Council of Europe, which I would imagine Johnson would like it to, then heaven help us, because the government won’t and the new establishment friendly Speaker won’t either.

        I read somewhere that Johnson wants the Supreme Court abolished and MPs to be able to veto appointments of SC judges.

        Like

    2. I agree.

      If the Catalonians want independence, they should have it.

      It’s beyond despicable that Spain is treating them the way they are.

      I didn’t know about the sentences compared with the utterly disgusting crimes you mention above. But it’s truly sickening.

      I made up my mind at the beginning of the process that I won’t go to Spain and that I won;t knowingly buy any Spanish produce. It’s little enough to do, but, it’s the only thing open to me.

      Like

  7. Look I’m no Cassandra but I predict a Tory majority on 13th December, the only thing I’m not sure about is its size. I don’t know how many SNP seats there will be, I imagine more than 35 but I’m not sure about 50s. WGD seems to be alluding to info that canvassing is bad for my current Tory MP and I might be rid of him – hooray! To damn him with faint praise though, he’s not the worst of the Tories on Scotland.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Cassandra thanks you for the compliment, PP, and agrees with your prediction.

      One thing Cassandra picked up on yesterday was the news coming out about Russian involvement in the Leave campaign and dark money flowing into Tory coffers – including Davidson’s – and Cummings’ role as Poundland Steve Bannon to Johnson’s Poundland Trump. Of course it goes back further than Johnson, but we look forward to all the dirt coming out. We love a spot of Schadenfreude, we do.

      Cassandra herself just loves it when she’s right about something, but generally aims for plausible deniability when she’s not.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I’ve decided to declare ‘Purdah’.
        Just found a wee programme for the computer.
        EndItAll 2.0.0.0 is a program that terminates all processes.
        Wondering if we are getting close to a royal occasion , like a christening or a wedding or a divorce, you know like all the the things the rest of us have to live and die with.
        Maybe you’ll all have heard the rumour that harry hewitt’s boy is resigning from the FIRM butt brenda says ‘Now is not the time’

        Liked by 3 people

        1. I have to say, with no undue disrespect, that with two very very elderly royals on the go… the queen must be 93 and Phil is 98… I worry that an election would be swayed, particularly in England, by the death of either.

          I imagine that the election would be cancelled if it were the queen who popped her clogs, but the outpourings of sympathy for her if her husband of 70+ years dropped off his perch, would bring out all the patriotism and “there’s always be an England” that might persuade people that the Tories, who believe in all that stuff, would be the most appropriate party to lead England through these difficult and sad times.

          If that sounds pretty unfeeling, I’d just say that by and large people in their late 90s have a high marginal propensity to that kind of fate.

          Liked by 2 people

    2. Best not to build up hopes.

      I”d be satisfied if we got 45+ and disappointed if it were under 40. Utterly devastate if we only got the same number.

      I imagine that in the NE fishing communities the fact that they won’t by even the slightest stretch of imagination, take back control of the fishing rights, should do for the Tories.

      I really hope you get rid of your Tory… It’s a bit like saying I hope you get rid of your cold, or flu!!

      Like

  8. Just heard a piece on my neighbour’s tv , Sky, on brenda.
    Auld brenda’s giving up the real fur on her clothes and turning to fake or Faux fur.
    Things must be getting poor for the firm.
    Here we are at the start of a GE and sky do a squirrel job.
    The harry hewitt’s boy carbon offsetting plan must be helpful.
    What about all the wee burds they kill on the glorious Twelth, oh, carbon offset will help.
    Meanwhile , in a secret location in the West Midlands, doris tells us the SNP are BAAAAD.
    Russian money will not be part of the speech, nor the Welsh Secretary resigning, police numbers falling, fake videos of the opposition.
    Purdah didn’t last long.
    Swineson promising more money for mental health, self serving for her and wee willie no doubt.
    Thinking she might just get in due to the media coverage she gets from national tv opportunities.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Today’s blog has a bit of a laugh at some of the misfortunes that befell the Tories on their launch day.

      I saw an article in the Express as I walked past it in the shop. Apparently, the Queen is leading the fight against real fur.

      And there was me believing that it had been unfashionable to wear fur for the last 50+ years.

      I guess we can look forward to fewer votes in Birmingham then?

      Like

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