Electoral Calculus reckons that Nigel could be the PM after the next PM

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Electoral Calculus (Tweet)
Did you know? that @YouGov poll results are a bit different from the other pollsters: they see #LibDem ahead of #Labour. If that’s right, and they were quite accurate at the EU elections, then a YouGov-only poll of 4 polls gives this forecast: pic.twitter.com/wPiPzzDSmX

 

That result seems a bit extreme to me, but it is an amalgam of four polls so although I take the results with a pinch of salt, I reckon it indicates great changes in the UK.

It seems to me that “Taylor” on Twitter, has it about right here:

The next UK government will be formed by Farage and the Brexit party If that’s not enough incentive for Scotland to go independent then I dunno what is Let’s get a move on before rUK drags us down the sewer.

22 thoughts on “Electoral Calculus reckons that Nigel could be the PM after the next PM”

  1. Tris
    People tend to vote differently in EU and GE but once the Brexit Party are scrutinised at an individual level in a constituency then I suspect it will be a different outcome. If there is a GE it looks like the Liberals might benefit the most in England, Labour I wouldn’t think would lose too much and the Tories won’t lose too much but both will lose enough to confuse everything even more in England . What I think will happen is that no one party or maybe even two will have enough to form a government and that might be interesting. Scotland, if the SNP were to get to 51 then they need to take a far harder line on independence or it will be last time they ever reach those heights, but I don’t think they will get 51, over 40 would still be a decent result.

    Bruce

    Liked by 5 people

    1. That sounds a much more likely outcome, Bruce.

      Although I’m hoping the SNP get a good number of seats.

      We need to get away from this mad house… which is it, even without the ridiculous Brexit Party.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Nigel Farage, Prime Minister. There was a time when I would have laughed out loud at such a ridiculous assertion. It’ll never happen I would have confidently said. That of course was when England’s mental health problems were bubbling below the surface being largely held in check. The EU referendum result was the end of the, it’ll never happen here way of thinking however because these checks evaporated and as England’s mental health moves closer to full blown psychotic episode anything becomes possible.

        Getting away from the mad house has never been so necessary.

        Liked by 3 people

    2. I agree with most of what you say Bruce, if the GE isn’t called this year. If it is called this year, and I think this is likely, then a large portion of the English population are still in knee jerk mode over brexit and it is this mindset that could see a Farage party take dominance or at least be on equal terms with the other three westminster parties. I think, as you stated, the LibDems will do well. Depends what they do with the leadership, on whether they can surf this into the future.

      Liked by 1 person

          1. She seems to be on the right of the Liberal Party. When in government she voted for some pretty awful stuff with the Tories, and then she wanted a statue of Margaret Thatcher!!!

            But apart form that she comes across as a bit shrill, single-mindedly against independence for Scotland and not particularly clever.

            Liked by 1 person

  2. I’ll stick to my original prediction. Boris will go full throttle “No Deal Brexit”, win a Tory majority in a G.E, destroy Farage, and attempt to sideline the Scottish Parliament by giving the U.K Goverment in Scotland, from their new offices in Edinburgh and Glasgow, most of the powers presently devolved to Holyrood. Ross Thomson anyone?
    Too much? Well maybe, but no matter how many M.Ps we have at Westminster, they will still be treated with contempt.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Well, you have a point there. When we had 556 out of 59 MPs, a totally improbably situation, they still treated us like dirt.

      Fair to say that we forget just how the south of England votes. No matter how much harm it does, no deal Brexit will thrill them.

      Hardliner Boris is probably the only thing that will stop the Brexit Party making headway.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. Rory the Tory though came away with the notion of a Minister for the Union. It might have legs.
      The C&U Party are desperate to retain the devolved nations ( despite the stout yeomen of the northern shires and home counties regarding it as secondary to brexit), and it’s clear that 1) there’s a limited and shallow pool of talent amongst Scottish Conservative MP’s ( actual or potential) to fill the Scottish Secretary job & 2) that Northern Ireland devolved government is unstable & that historically the Northern Ireland Secretary job is either seen as a banishment, a punishment or for third raters. A Minister for the Union would allow C&U government to centralise and control the governance of the celtic fringes. In particular it would create the opportunity to appoint Scottish Secretaries that aren’t MP’s representing Scottish constituencies…in effect an opportunity to appoint a true blue governor-general . Even with any potential future Labour government this ruse would still work…they’d probably appoint a tame Welshman. And if there was a coalition government in Westminster the minister of choice would be a Britnat from Brexit, Ukip or the DUP ( or god help us a truth slayer from the Liberal-Democrats) .

      We really do need out…now. I’m appreciative of gradualism as an approach , but concerned that it simply provides opponents of self-determination an opportunity to regroup and reinforce.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Didn’t Labour at pone point, have such a person. Maybe not for Northern Ireland, but certainly for Wales and Scotland… and at another time wasn’t the Scottish Secretary also Defence Secretary?

        Mundell, in fairness, would be an easy act to follow. He’s a definite 3rd rater who would have got no position at all, if he hadn’t initially been the only possible contender for the job.

        I think someone may pick up Rory’s idea and run with it for the reasons you say, and it will, of course, have the opposite effect.

        I agree with you about gradualism. No point in trying to rush them, but it is getting serious now.

        Like

      2. This is a likely outcome if the tories hold it together, or something similar. It is important for westminster to demonstrate that money spent on new factories, roads, infrastructure come from a benificent westminster. What you outline is one of the ways.
        Keep in mind that it was the EU that compelled Westminster to setup the assemblies, to try and redress the democratic deficit in the UK. As soon as they are out of the EU we can expect a dismantling/undermining of the assemblies. We may be allowed to “go it alone” after the fossil fuel has been disrupted or curtailed, 30 years?

        Liked by 1 person

        1. I thought it was the Council of Europe that demanded democracy, Alan.

          I suspect that we will leave that anyhow, so in the long run it won;t make much difference.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Yes you are correct, I was sloppy. The UK were being criticised for the woeful democratic standards and threatened with being thrown off the Council of Europe. They did the minimum to keep their arses at the table.

            Liked by 1 person

  3. The UK isn’t thought of as a rogue state,Yet.
    When they leave the EU and default on agreed budget payments perceptions will change,especially if BoJo or Farage are running the show.
    Scotland removing it’s resources from their clutches will finally tip England into an isolated hell of their own making.
    All that these idiots are doing is taking England to the end of a political road set out on by Thatcher.
    Not our way and never has been.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. We are very different people, and very different countries.

      Our dreams and aspirations are not the same.

      If they ever were, they have long since diverged.

      Like

      1. The Treaty was between the Kingdoms of Scotland and England, the latter consisted of the countries of England Wales and Ireland. Northern Ireland being partitioned in the early 1900s is therefore still part of the Kingdom of England.

        Liked by 1 person

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