Nothing has changed. As predicted.
The backstop is the backstop is the backstop. Because legally it has to be. And no matter how you play the legal language, there is no way around it.
It is impossible to have a backstop that one side can walk away from without consultation. If there is no trade deal after December 2020, and that is, given the painfully slow progress of the current government in the withdrawal phase, more than likely, the backstop will have to come into force.
Interesting to note that last night the leadership of the DUP was consulted on the outcome of the talks. The first ministers Scotland and Wales were not. Almost like we didn’t matter.
So, how will they vote tonight?
Will the bribes of vast amounts of our money to Labour MPs’ constituencies in England work?
Will the DUP be satisfied? If so, will Rees Mogg take his line from them, as he has said he would?
Will May still be prime minister this time next week?
How did we get into this almighty mess?
How soon can we escape?
MUNGUIN'S NEW REPUBLIC 
I fully expect they’ll vote against it. Then vote against a no deal tomorrow followed by a vote against an extension of article 50 the day after because nothing that happens in that asylum makes any sense.
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Does anyone understand what is going on in the zundevurr unit.
We talk of nothing else in the Zoo.
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I agree smac134 the house of Commons WILL vote against Feartie’s pathetic offer later tonight.
The only question is will the defeat be HIGHER or LOWER than last time. The M.P.’s will, as mentioned, hold a vote on a NO deal tomorrow. This is, in my view, actually a waste of time because it is NOT up to Westminster to decide if they leave with or without a deal. The simple FACT is that if NO offer, currently only Feartie’s pathetic one is being offered, is agreed to then, I hate to be the bearer of bad news here, I believe this toxic corrupt broken Britain WILL be leaving the E.U. on March 29th, 17 days time by the way, WITHOUT a DEAL!
There is indeed a vote, currently still on the books, to be held on Thursday to extend Article 50. I can not see this vote being passed either at the moment and so we are left at that point, 15 days from March 29th, with the ONLY door left unlocked will be a NO DEAL with the E.U.
I can not see there being any time left for Feartie to get anything new, and I do REALLY mean NEW here, to appease the M.P.’s in Westminster. Remember peeps ANY deal that IS agreed, yes I DO believe in fairies living at the bottom of my garden, it must STILL be agreed to by the E.U. 27. This will take more than 24 hours to be carried out and it will only take ONE of the E.U. 27 to refuse to agree to any “new” offer to block the offer becoming a reality and we are back to square one again! *YAWN!*
Despite any other political views I hold, and I have been known to hold one or two, I strongly feel that this toxic corrupt broken Britain has been sold a few Turkey bones for Christmas, firstly by Porky and laterly by Feartie, over Brexit. NO ONE, either from the Remain or Leave side had a clue about what Brexit meant for Britain and from what I have seen since June 2016 no one STILL has a clue what Brexit means for Britain despite Feartie constantly, not so much these days admittedly, claiming Brexit means Brexit!
Did Feartie EVER hace a clue about what Brexit means I wonder … I think not folks!
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Of course, you are right, Arbroath.
The only way they can avoid No Deal, is to vote for
a/ May’s bad deal
b/ An extension to A50
c/ Retraction of A50 and a second referendum, which will almost certainly result in a Remain vote, and some rioting on the streets, while Nigel, having stirred it all up, hides somewhere convenient.
Miguel said that his father was on the phone this morning fromthe Algarve, asking what the hell they are playing at. I had a French friend last night on Skype telling me how mad he though the Brits were.
All over the world people are laughing at Britain. That will be the Britain that Cameron assured us, at the beginning of OUR referendum, was admired and feared in equal measure around the world…
What a roaster, living in a roasting tin!
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Well from all soundings I’m hearing Tris option a) is a dead duck. This leaves the following in my view.
a) the vote on no deal tomorrow which in my view is a bit meaningless because it can not stop a no deal Brexit. If no deal can be agreed by BOTH the U.K. and the E.U. 27 BEFORE March 29th then Britain will indeed be out on its earse on March 29th with NO DEAL!
b) your option b concerning extending Article 50. There is a vote on this currently scheduled for Thursday on this option. Unfortunately I am not convinced that this option will be passed either. I suspect that the E.R.G. and D.U.P. will vote against this and as a result it will lose.
c) retraction of Article 50. I think we all know where this idea is heading Tris. Feartie believes in Brexit means Brexit (still waiting to find out what the hell she means by this useless statement but hey ho we live in hope!) I think you’ll find significant opposition not just from the Tories but also their hard right wing E.R.G. branch and the D.U.P. on this option.
d) another E.U. referendum. Like the option about retracting Article 50 I do not see this option ever seeing the light of day. Feartie and co., E.R.G. and D.U.P. are terrified out of their skins about this option and so will never permit it to happen.
I also agree with your last comments as well Tris. This toxic corrupt broken Britain is indeed the laughing stock throughout the World.
By the way if anyone believes anything from the Brexiteers that with a no deal we will move seamlessly onto W.T.O. best think again. There are five countries, I think, who have announced they would vote AGAINST Britain jumping straight into W.T.O. rules South Korea (I think) is the latest to be included alongside the likes of New Zealand.
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Good analysis, Arbroath.
Can’t add anything to that, so I thought you all might be interested in this little gem.
I couldn’t believe my eyes.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17494768.nicola-sturgeon-told-shes-not-bright-enough-for-mays-brexit-deal/
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Thanks Tris.
I saw that article earlier today and could not believe what I was reading.
I must admit though that I do actually agree with the “simply wasn’t bright enough” sentiment. The only problem for Feartie is that I do NOT think this sentiment applies to OUR First Minister but in fact applies to Feartie herself!
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That won’t go down well in Scotland.
Can we have some posters with pictures of Theresa and Nicola asking’Who’s not bright enough then?’.
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Brilliant idea Ann.
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Exactly.
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LOL. Best vote against everything.
But the truth is that if they do that, then no deal it will be. No matter how hard they vote against it.
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To be honest Tris a vote against NO deal on Wednesday will NOT stop a no deal happening. As you know if no deal is ratified by U.K. AND E.U. by March 29th then the U.K. WILL be in a no deal scenario … immaterial of what the vote delivers on Wednesday hence my scepticism about tomorrow’s vote actually meaning anything at all other than just wasting time, time we do not have.
As for Thursday vote, to extend Article 50, this is also not going to change anything. What it WILL do is give Feartie, or whoever travels to Brussels/Strasbourg, the authority to ask (actually beg) for an extension to Article 50. This is not that straightforward however because for an extension to be granted ALL 27 members of the E.U. MUST agree to the extension and the request must, as I understand things, meet certain criteria. Westminster can not go to the E.U. and just ask for an extension they must have a specific reason or reasons e.g. a General Election, second E.U. referendum etc. Do not forget either folks it takes just ONE member of the E.U. to say NO to ensure there is NO extension to Article 50 and then guess what folks …. NO DEAL Brexit is definitely on the cards, no if’s, no and’s and definitely no but’s!
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Go on yersel, Luxembourg or Malta or Cyprus.. Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia.
LOL
It’ll be a wee country and the mighty empire two will come crashing down, at the hands of a country with a population of a small English city.
Oh how we could laugh…
Except it is us too.
You are right, of course. They can vote against no deal until they are red white and blue in the face… or indeed, blue in the passport, but it will make sod all difference unless they have an alternative.
Happy day, huh?
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Insecure became zundevurr
Best me
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It sounded like a place in the Netherlands…
No , no one has any idea. But if one of the animals comes up with something, maybe you could let us all know?
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Tris,
There is less than 20 days to Brexit (if you are a pessimist, less than 10 days [because I consider the European Council summit on the 21st March will be the definitive date that we will know what form of Brexit will take place]). It would be remiss of me not to warn Munguinites and casual readers alike that a no deal Brexit is now the most likely possibility. As it stands, the only certainty that is legally binding upon the UK and the EU is the invoking and enforcement of Article 50. Britain will exit the EU on the 29th March (with or without a deal) and everything else is pish.
Whatever obfuscation that Theresa May is currently presenting to the Commons in relation to the supposed amended new Brexit deal will fail due to following reasons:
[a] the negotiation position is not agreed upon within the Commons; and/or
[b] the negotiation position is not agreed upon outwith the Commons; and/or
[c] procedural compliance is not possible due to the time constraint; and/or
[d] extension to Article 50/People’s Vote/GE is also not possible due to time constraint too; and/or
[e] proposal in [d] may result in another deadlock.
This at the end brings us back to the status quo ie exiting the EU on the 29th March. Both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are playing a very reckless game of brinkmanship in which both of them can afford to lose. To say it will be very devastating to Scotland is the understatement of the century. This is why I am advising all Munguinites and casual readers to take whatever necessary precautions needed to overcome the effects of Brexit.
I don’t either know what Nicola Sturgeon is planning, but at this point I am also advising all of us to be prepared for a second referendum regardless. It will come with or without SNP’s nudge. Brexit is going the hammer that will smash this Union and I hope we will grasp the thistle this time. I hope will get Berwick back too in the process. And if they want to give all the land north of the Wall, I will not be objecting.
See you all in an independent Scotland. I can feel it already.
Saor Alba!
ABU
p/s: Apologies Tris, I wanted it to contribute in the form of a short post but I am sick for the past week and grappling with our own Malaysian Brexit here too.
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First of all, get better soon, Abu. Munguin sends hugs. And thanks for making an effort when you’re under the weather.
Yep, you sum it up nicely (as you would, with legal precision!).
This is what we have been waiting for and there can surely be no further prevarication.
I accept absolutely that the government has been wary about starting the procedure for a second referendum. NS has always been careful to respect the vote of 2014, and I think she was being super cautious. If you base your campaign on a particular outcome of Brexit (and that is, after all, the justification, referring to the manifesti of the Greens and SNP, the majority of seats in the current parliament, as well as the London parliament), and another outcome occurs, then you have kinda lost the place.
However, it looks like by the end of this week, we shall know what the outcome will be.
Crass incompetence from the UK government has led us to this. Why would we suspect that they will deal any more competently with whatever comes next? Independence seems like the only possible outcome now.
It seems to me that not one of their front bench is anything other than useless. God only knows how they will handle trade deals and what they will have to give away to get any kind of deal with any country bigger than the Faroe Islands.
We must be ready.
I’m interested in your Malaysian exit (Mexit?) presumably from ASEAN. Maybe when you’re feeling better you will write a bit about it.
Once again, get well soon, my friend.
T
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Sorry to disappoint peeps Tris but it seems that the Tory Central H.Q. is planning for European Parliament elections. 😂
Oh to be a fly on the wall of the meeting rooms when the E.R.G. and D.U.P. find out about this rumour! 😂
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Ah, a little (illegal?) start for the Tories?
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To be honest Tris I think the other parties are planning for the E.U. elections they just are not telling anyone … YET! 😂
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You’re probably right Arbroath. it would be foolish not to do some planning.
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– MPs vote against Theresa May’s #Brexit deal by 149 votes
– 75 Conservatives voted against the PM
– Parliament to have a free vote on whether UK should leave EU with no deal
She LOST.
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Perhaps I am missing something but even if Westminster votes for no No deal tomorrow,the default is still No deal on the 29th March.
Who is going to go back to the EU and ask for more time to argue amongst themselves with no clear outcome at the end of the allotted time?
The only thing they can do now to prevent No deal is to revoke Article 50.
The Backstop is no longer in play because,as I understand it,they have rejected the withdrawal agreement
which means a hard border in Ireland and probably goodbye Gibraltar.
The only thing the EU might listen to in terms of a request for more time is a proposal to be put to the UK voters,either through another referendum or GE, that they either leave the EU without a deal or don’t leave at all.
They will only listen to Corbyn’s plan if he is elected on that mandate to govern the UK.
What a mess.
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The thing about another election is that, Corbyn being Corbyn, he’ll lose it.
And maybe this time the Tories won’t depend upon the DUP, so maybe NI will be cut loose…
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Not sure this suggestion will pass muster with those who fall into the “General Election geek” category Tris but here goes anyway.
Should another General Election be called, I’m not convinced it is a goer but hey who knows anything these days right, then perhaps the S.N.P. should stand on a manifesto policy of “deliver the largest number of S.N.P. M.P.’s from Scotland and we will begin IMMEDIATE discussions with the government in Westminster concerning revoking the 1707 Treaty of Union and returning ALL powers to Scotland and its Scottish government in the shortest possible time frame.
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Yes, I think that’s a possibility.
It might dampen the SNP figure a little, but probably not that much.
Referendum it would be then… unless Mrs May’s successor, whoever it was, tried to say no to that!!
What do others think?
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Could someone just propose that Northern Ireland and Scotland, who both voted remain, can stay in the customs union, single market and accept free movement of people while England and Wales (though they might be having second thoughts) who voted to leave could do so.
Europe might well be prepared to accept this and it would solve the Irish Border problem. The DUP would not be happy but they don’t represent the majority in Northern Ireland and the Conservatives would not like the uppity Scots getting special treatment, especially if it meant they couldn’t sell off our fishing industry, lose trade deals with the USA and have to accept immigrants on their northern border. On the other hand they could, at least postpone, the inevitable break-up of their precious union.
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Well, I’ve said since day one that the sensible thing to do would have been to look at Denmark, which consists of three nations. One of them is in the EU and two are not.
No problems.
Obviously too difficult for the super brain of May to organise.
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Listen to what May said after the defeat, if parliament votes for an extension “the EU will want to know what use we mean to make of such an extension, and THIS HOUSE will have to answer that question”, note the House will have to answer, not her Government. How are you going to get this mob to agree a line with the EU?
Sounds like abrogating responsibility to me.
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Of course she was lying, probably in temper (which makes a change from just lying).
She is the servant of the House. She put herself up for the job (please note James (not so) Cleverly).
It will be her job to inform the EU what her government intends to come up with next.
Not that there is anything.
She might as well resign, useless item.
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