a dims

Laura Kuenssberg has just tweeted this illustration of the economic impact assessments that MPs have been allowed to see. Important to note forecasts are for a fifteen year period – and predict how much more slowly the economy would grow, not how much it would shrink, so they still expect growth, just a good bit less of it.

So, if you voted for Brexit, this is how much worse the pro-Brexit “Department for Exiting the EU predicts your future will be.


Scotland, were we to stay in the single market, which May has ruled out (on pain of the disgraced Liam Fox resigning… Yeah yeah, I know, anyone else would see that as a massive bonus, but what the hell???) would lose 2.5% of our growth. With some sort of Free Trade Deal, a very dubious possibility, we’d lose 6%, and if we work on WTO figures,  the most likely scenario, 9%.


This is broadly in line with the conclusions of the Scottish government’s impact assessment which found that Scotland’s GDP would be 8.5% lower by 2030 than it would be if it stayed in the EU if Brexit resulted in the UK trading with Europe on WTO terms. It would be 6.1% lower with a free trade agreement, but only 2.7% lower if the UK stayed in the single market.

That’s in a country that voted 62-38 to REMAIN.


But, with the broad shoulders of Britain, and the strong and stable hands and legs and arms and possibly other bits of the Maybot… what chance does Barnier have?


Hoi Munguin:


Aye right… whatever.


  1. What I see from this, bizarrely so, is that if the Geordies ever waken up, they will have to join an already independent Scotland.

    They are seriously buggered, mostly by their own making and bovine Super Glue adhesion to Labour.

    Where do British Labour get their “activists” in Scottish elections; not from Scotland.

    Liked by 1 person

          1. Renault control Nissan and Infiniti. The hed bummer is Carlos Ghosen, who in an Enarc, and very close to State elite.

            Anything May tells to Nissan is knownm in short order, throught the French Gov and perforce the German.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. Ah. I remember that just after the referendum the government in London promised the car pants in the NE of England that they would still be fine; the market in the EU would still be there.

              I wondered how they could do that at a time when they hadn’t even triggered article 50.

              I wonder if the Brits know about the Ecole Nationale d’Administration! Actually, it’s probably one of the few things French that they DO understand.


    1. I have suggested for ages that The SNP should put up candidates in Berwick. Even if they don’t win the publicity and media attention would be worth it and the result might even be a surprise.

      It might even be an idea to start wooing the Geordies and putting up candidates in Geordieland. Given the way they havbeen treated by WM it shouldn’t be beyond possibility to convince a significant number of them that they would be better off as part of an Independent Scotland.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I worked with a woman from Newcastle. Her whole family from there; he husband got a job in Dundee and they moved.

        I’ve no idea what her politics were, but I remember her saying that she’d always felt more affinity with Edinburgh than with London.


  2. The leaked impact assessments certainly have some grim statistics in there. It’s difficult to see exactly how this will pan out quite yet but Brexit will also have a significant impact on the UK’s constitutional and legal arrangements. We’ll be returning to a system of enhanced executive power, a much reduced role for the devolved parliaments, big government, the filling of forms, a feeling that permission must be asked rather than assumed. Some might say that reducing the institutional and legal constraints on government is democratic but the point of those constraints is to set long-term objectives. Brexit means we can no longer agree on those long-term objectives so we will have to take more of that mandate from election results. Governments with too much power, though, are a genuine threat to democracy. We’ve already seen attempts to undermine domestic courts, judges, MPs, law, human rights commitments and basic systems of parliamentary scrutiny with yells of traitor and saboteur. Where is the UK heading?

    Liked by 4 people

    1. I wonder, Terry, if the “British People” who voted, seemingly pretty unanimously, for Brexit (according, over and over again, to the Maybot) had any idea what they were doing when they consigned us to this future.

      I can only hope that the catastrophic results of their stupidity will have a silver lining for Scotland and Ireland (and Gibraltar).

      I can see the Good Friday Agreement breaking down.

      As for the cost… Unimaginable.

      And goodbye health service, becasue we won’t be able to afford it, never mind give it £350m a week.

      Happily (?), I suspect, Mr Trump will buy it and sell its services back to those of us who can afford it.

      Don’t be poor, don’t be sick and don’t get old, fellow Scots. At least not till we’ve got free and live more like Scandinavians.

      What dickwittery!


      1. I don’t think many Leave voters knew what were voting for. They definitely didn’t vote to put the NHS into a raffle or threaten the GFA. These are natural consequences of Brexit but they won’t listen.

        Dickwittery is a pantomime starring Jim Davidson. It’ll be on in 2025 in Boston, Lincolnshire.

        Liked by 2 people

      1. Brilliant, as ever, Stuart’s take on Tompkins’ take of the Scottish impact assessment figures.

        I’m sure Good Morning Scotland will be taking him to task over this.

        Can’t wait for the interview tomorrow morning.

        Sometimes I think that Tompkins is ever stupider than Murdo.

        Liked by 1 person

          1. Re. the figures in the BBC Scotland news story (https://goo.gl/f2hF8b) in that Wings article – well blow me down and knock me over with a feather – the BeeB actually reported them! And even pointed out that the Tories had rubbished the Scottish Government figures as ´scaremongering´!!

            Nevertheless, weirdness remains, whether minor, major, by (rounding) error or deliberately – who can tell.

            Headline: ¨Brexit ‘could cut Scottish GDP by 9%’.¨ (The single quotation marks in the text of the article are intriguing, you have to admit, given that the comparison is being drawn between two sets of figures from two sources. The only correct response to single quotation marks of that kind is to ask oneself ¨Sez who?¨)

            First sentence: ¨The UK leaving the EU without a trade deal in place would cut Scottish GDP by 9%, according to leaked UK government analysis.¨ Ah, so that´s all right then. Now we know where the 9% figure comes from.

            Second sentence: ¨The figure is slightly worse than the 8.5% hit to GDP predicted by a Scottish government study last month.¨ So far, so good. The BeeB has established that the 0.5% is a difference worth mentioning, albeit slight.

            Under ¨Regional breakdowns¨ we have:

            ¨For Scotland, the UK government analysis predicts: … No deal – 9% lower¨. So far, so consistent.

            But then: ¨The Scottish government figures were: … No deal – 8% lower¨.

            So: between 8.5% and 8.0% there´s a 6.25% difference, to be snide about it, and what with my translator´s and editor´s OCD, that sort of numerical inconsistency makes my teeth itch. That is, it makes them itch even more, even over and above the usual bruxis-inducing failure to establish whether we are talking about percent, or percentage points, or relative to what and to when.

            Close, but no coconut.

            Liked by 1 person

    1. Technical remark – half the images above are not showing using firefox 58.0.1 on 64-bit Linux Mint (Cinnamon) – I suppose the broken coffee cup is saying that it´s a java problem – but are rendered just fine by Google Chrome 64.0.3282.140 ditto.

      It was all so much simpler then, when we huddled in front of our fires at the entrances to our caves and wrestled sabre-toothed tigers to steal their dinners.

      As for clarification, the Governor-General, as is only right and proper, takes after his puppetmistress – he doesn´t do clarity, he doesn´t do transparency, and he doesn´t do truthful or meaningful answers.

      She might still have the edge when it comes to evasiveness, though: it will probably be years before we find out exactly why Mr. Fox-Werrity is still on Team Maybot. Or any of them, really.

      Seguing seamlessly into a not quite absolutely unrelated topic, I note in passing that the Honorary Colonel displayed a quite remarkable degree of political nous recently, far more than we have come to expect from any Tory politician in these islands – by disinviting Fox-Werrity, BoJo and Gove from attending the forthcoming Conference of the Monster Raving Tory & Yoony Party in Aberdeen on the first weekend in March. Govey must be quite heartbroken to be told to stay away from his own beloved home city at such an auspicious time…


      1. Mr Gove is on the team because Mr Murdoch told her he was.

        I’m not sure why she won’t have them there (if she has the right to tell them not to come). The loonie right has won the battle of Brexit. They are the winners.

        Theresa caved.

        They own the Tory party now.

        Gove and Fox are supposedly Scottish…

        Thanks for the tech info… I bloody give up with WordPress

        Liked by 1 person

    2. We all know that Mundell doesn’t know
      He doesn’t know that he doesn’t know because no one tells him
      No one tells him because they dopn’t want him to know

      Liked by 2 people

      1. SHIT

        No one tells him because they don’t want him to know
        Thus he is the World’s best Scapegoat and, he doesn’t know that either

        Liked by 3 people

  3. I’m struck by the similarity, nay near identity, of the Scottish gov. and WM assessment figures. Assuming they were arrived at independently, it would suggest they are likely to be correct. Based on whatever facts and figures are available, rather than wild speculation. No surprise then that WM were so keen to keep them close to their chest. But the feline is out of the poke now, and a rather unfriendly mangie moggie it is too.

    So what say we call the whole thing off? 😉
    (How does that song go now?)

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Ah well… if we ever part then that would break my heart … or something

      Well… fasten your seat belt, its gonna be a bumpy ride. Just remember we have a fully functioning parachute.


    2. Possibly they used the same economic model?

      Anyone remember the Japanese one, which was the first and only one after the Ref and was so until the Scot Gov one

      Liked by 1 person

        1. I suspect that Maybot was advised not to publish anything from the start as it was certian what the result would be. She was also scared that HM Treasury would leak. So the confusion of did they or not do the analyses. Cue Hammond authorising the actual analyses and reports.

          So for speed, where did they go for their Starter?

          Liked by 2 people

      1. If I’m honest, it’s not sheltering the few that bothers me. It’s the flood in the years following and the consequences, anyone who lives in small rural communities knows how “incomers” always want to take over and change those communities.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. Jeff Dugdale‏
    Following Following @Jefforbited

    Brexit analysis shows we’ll all be worse off by lots. I ‘ve heard that some Tories are into self-flagellation for their kicks but do they really have to impose it on every one ?

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I gave up beating myself up about things many years ago, when I realized that there were so many people out there who would be very happy to do it for me free, gratis and for nothing, but I wasn´t thinking about that sort of flagellation for kicks. Honest. Really.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. You have to be up early to hear the Balance of EBC R4.
    Early this morning, Today Programmme, article on migration, 30 seconds of Nicola saying we in scotland require incomers.
    Next was a copy and paste job from the Middlesborough article on travel to East Kilbride on a bus.
    Then the absolute killer, Jackson Carlaw, car salesman, saying in effect that our friends from NI can come over after Brexit.
    Irish border problem solved, Scottish population shortage solved.
    Ireland becomes united in the EU.
    Not repeated after the 8 o’clock news.
    Dont listen much to EBBC radio or TV , only when the radio alarm is set for an early start at work.
    Easy to work out the propaganda, the presenters don’t talk over the inserted stuff, pre recorded, but if the person is in the studio they will be agressive if it is not on prescribed script, Wonder who sets the agenda for the day? . It is then repeated on radio shortbread.
    The next piece was priceless as already commented on, dear Jo helping out her fellow MP’s on abuse, nothing said about abusing expenses or election pamphlets not recorded against the constituancy.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. Simple solution. Hold ‘indyref2’ on the same day as the ‘border poll’.
        They can’t be in two places at once and neither constituency would be able to use the others result as a propaganda tool. We would probably find it easier to persuade independent european observers to front the process too.😎

        Liked by 5 people

        1. I love the idea of simultaneous Scottish independence / Irish reunification referendums. I am sure that for their parts the Scottish and Irish Governments could sort that out between them very easily. The problem would, of course, be the fragrant Arlene and her ilk. What an affront to democracy it is: a majority in the Province voted to Remain, but Arlene and Co. get to prop up the Westminster Tories so they can perpetuate their own dominance. They won´t permit anything that threatens that, neither the Arlene Foster party nor the FoxGoveMay party, and an Irish border poll would do precisely that. Frictionlessly.

          I too worry about the GFA. I haven´t had the fortituded to check up on what´s going on over there now. If it´s anything like here, they´ll be in waiting mode, waiting to see what will happen – this must be what the Phoney War was like at the beginning of WWII: war had been declared, like article 50 has been triggered, but nothing had actually happened yet, really.

          I don´t suppose I´m alone in fearing that all hell will break loose at some point.

          Liked by 1 person

            1. Odd, isn´t it, how the real problem communities in England, Norniron and Scotland are – the British Nationalists, screaming and shouting and marching and doing when anyone else tries to tell them about new-fangled ideas such as democracy and respecting other people´s rights, and suggesting ever so delicately that they don´t actually have a God-given right to rule the roost in perpetuity.

              The rest of us are pretty much OK with rubbing along together, occasionally raising our eyebrows but coming out with platitudes – or even Golden Rules – such as ¨live and let live¨, ¨takes all kinds to make a world¨, ¨it would be boring if we were all the same¨, and ¨what do you fancy for takeaway tonight, Indian or Chinese?¨

              Like you, Tris, I shudder at the thought of an exodus of Orange Ludgers from Norniron to Scotland if a border poll were to go against them. We have quite enough of that sort of thing all on our ownio.

              I like WGD´s characterization of Scottish Unionists as Jaffa Cakes – a bit orangey in the middle…

              Liked by 1 person

    1. When you have to go to Jackson Car Lot for a solution, you know you have hit rock bottom.

      I suspect of course that he means the Orange Order who couldn’t stand to be ruled from Dublin can bring their hate-filled philosophies over here. No surrender indeed.

      Had he been on the drink? Silly question.

      What happened to the Scottish Conservatives demanding we stay in the EU, then demanding we leave but being in the single market then not being able to find a single person to put up for interview except a failed second-hand car salesman that havers?

      I don’t listen to them now, at all, apart from the News Quiz.

      Liked by 1 person

  6. And, of course I know that all the Protestant population of North Ireland isn’t bigoted. Indeed my mate, Jamie, is anything but that. But they aren’t the kind that will up sticks because their country is run from Dublin.

    I’d be happy to invite people like Jamie to come live and work here. I just don’t want any Arlene Fosters and Ian Paisley jrs. .. not to mention Mrs Robinson.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Confusion reigns supreme at Schloß Freeman. Mrs Robinson… Mrs Robinson… Not Mrs Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland and subsequently United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights? An all-round good egg, is that Mrs Robinson. Oh – maybe George Robinson? Except it strikes me as improbable that the fragrant Arlene would allow her to continue serving in the DUP if she transitioned. Anyway, here´s to you, Mrs Robinson!

      P.S. A friend of mine of German origin has taken me to task for spelling ¨Schloߨ ¨Schloߨ and not the modern, post-orthographic-reform way, which is ¨Schloss¨. I have riposted that I am emotionally attached to the letter ß, and besides, I am loath to incur the cost of reprinting all the tourist brochures. The ß is also an expression of these premises´ olde-worlde, vintage housing association red brick charm, I feel.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. I saw a comment over on Twitter last night that mentioned the fact that the 1980’s bank crash caused 2.1% drop of GDP and an rise in unemployment to 3%.

    Now if the bank crash of the 1980’s was felt to be bad by people what the hell are they going to think about the drop in GDP figures first of all put out by the Scottish Government and now SUPPORTED by Feartie’s wee group of non entities?

    Liked by 2 people

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