Post by ABU HAIMI ABU HASSAN
Munguin’s Man in Malaysia
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Nicola Sturgeon announced recently that she would seek the Scottish Parliament’s consent for another independence referendum to be held latest by Spring 2019.
Though those of us on this side of the independence debate have expected that another independence referendum would have to take place in the near future, I was pleasantly surprised by the boldness of the move.
After reading some more blogposts and opinions, I am convinced that the move was truly momentous, and the effects will be more far-reaching and sublime than initially expected.
Firstly, the most immediate effect is the removal of Scottish assets as bargaining chips in the upcoming United Kingdom’s (UK) Brexit trade deal negotiation with the European Union. The UK government now cannot barter with the European Union, say for example, Scottish fishing waters because it cannot guarantee such waters will be in United Kingdom in the foreseeable future. In this sense, Nicola Sturgeon really did screw Theresa May’s bargaining position up with the European Union.
Secondly Theresa May, in her reply to Nicola Sturgeon, decided to delay (or deny [doesn’t matter as it has same effect]) the proposed referendum’s date until the Brexit negotiation is over. Some say she going to force the issue to be framed in the next Scottish Parliament election and put up God knows all kind of conditions. Theresa May’s reasoning, saying that Scotland should not have an independence referendum until the Brexit trade deal terms are finalised (hence avoiding economic uncertainties), is truly hypocritical and ironic. Scotland did not vote to get out of the European Union, so why do we have to be in the trade deal mess that is not our creation? We may or may not get a deal to our liking, or worse, no deal at all. Then again, the Tories are hypocritical creatures that don’t do irony.
Notwithstanding this, what is legal and what is politically moral/expedient are two different things. Theresa May can pass all the laws she wants in order to stop the referendum but the moment Nicola Sturgeon has the backing of the Scottish people, she will get her date no matter what. Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come.
Thirdly, by forcing hard Brexit, Theresa May has effectively lost the economic argument. Whatever position she takes in order to argue against Scotland can be effectively chucked back to her. Callum McCaig MP did use this method of argument and embarrassed her in the most recent PMQ. The logic is simple; if the UK can go it alone, why can’t Scotland do the same?
Thus, the only real argument in this referendum is about sovereignty. One may recall that a certain Tony Blair labelled the Scottish Parliament as “a glorified parish council”. In a sense, that is true. To put it crudely, the current manifestation of Scottish Parliament is the bastard child of Westminster Parliament. It is an unwanted but necessitated creation, an attempt to placate the Scots. Its authority flows from Westminster Parliament and can be taken back (there are some already clamouring for this). The Scottish Parliament that adjourned itself in 1707 still lay dormant in its 59 Westminster MPs. The sovereign will of the people of Scotland can only be actually manifested through these 59 MPs.
When the people of Scotland wish to be independent and the Scottish Parliament confirms this decision, it basically has no effect on Westminster Parliament, unless it has in advance agreed to it. Failing so, it is up to the 59 MPs to reflect the sovereign will of the people of Scotland. Therefore, in order to dissolve the union and achieve independence, all Scotland has to do is to instruct its MPs (or the majority of, as stated by one Mrs Thatcher) to notify the Speaker of the House of Commons that the Treaty of Union is annulled. For a dramatic effect, they should literally walk out of the House of Commons. The Union then ceases to be. Only then, we can properly resurrect the Scottish Parliament of 1707.
Fourthly, I am not sure whether this particular effect was planned or was a bonus, Theresa May has inadvertently been the cause of the hardening of views in Scotland. When the issue of sovereignty finally crystallises, the people on the fence must decide what they want; a free, independent and sovereign Scotland or a Tory-ruled hard-Brexit Union. We will definitely see this effect in the upcoming local election results. I’m of the opinion that Theresa May is willing to throw Ruth Davidson under the bus in order to prioritise/save England (as if it needs much effort anyway). I suppose the only people who are going to vote for Scottish Tories this time around are hardcore unionists.
As for Kezia Dugdale, God have mercy on her because by becoming “a pound shop Ruth Davidson”, Scottish Labour is going to haemorrhage even more votes than they did in 2016. The only thing I can say is that she is so deep in Lala-land, she thinks that place is real.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, a masterstroke in realpolitik. I think most of us on this side of the independence debate do not doubt that Nicola Sturgeon means business all the time. It is worth highlighting that in her last two First Minister’s Questions appearances, you can detect a steelier demeanour. It is going be an all-out effort to get out of the Union, and you can expect the same rigour to be returned by the unionists. It has to be said, too, that a theatrical John Swinney is much more fun than a dour one!
Mark my word, Scotland will have that referendum before or in the spring of 2019. And we MUST win it.
Editorial Note: Soppy Sunday will be a little later this week… but fear not, it will be with you by early afternoon.
What a cracking post! Outstanding!
Hat tip to the author for it.
Thank you.
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Lucid…and so elegantly written.
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Brilliant bit of commentary from our friend Abu Haimi Abu Hassan.
Love the guy.
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well the first few comments from the brown nosers
where just predictable obviously the snp have told
them what to say as usual…..
What fascinates me is the total hypocrisy of the snp/nats and thier
much vaunted sovereignty of the people dirge .
well the Sovereignty of the Scottish people voted no but none the less
the snp/nats spit in the face of their fellow people and getting a handful of
snp placemen at holyrood to pass an unwanted bill will now once again attempt
to force and ram through with malice a forethought and hate for supporters of the Union
another imposed referendum ….
go ahead go ahead you are only going to lose by an even bigger margin
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Brown noser, you cheeky Unionist Brown noser par excellence.
Away and have a cup of strong Ottoman coffee, a lie down and listen to the Greatest Hits of Teresa May, Gordon Brown, Ruth Davidson, and Ruth Dugdale. Enjoy before they become collectibles only of interest to a niche market consisting of you and others like you as well as social anthropologists, sociologists, political scientists examining best practice in radical political movements, and genuinely scientifically-grounded historians (none of your David Sharkey poltroons or Neil Oliver AngloBrit shills).
Grivas would have been proud of Nicola Sturgeon, Ataturk, too, Mandela, and the American colonists of the Revolutionary Wars of Independence from the likes of your good self. Suspect MacLean and Connolly would have welcome this development from her, too.
Yours in the memory and legacy of Gandhi you incorrigible Unionist troll and comprador mouthpiece for blood and soil British nationalism and imperialism Mk 2.
Enjoy your day in the sinking Sun while you may 😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😉😉😉😉😉😉😉😉😉😉
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Dappy
Thanks for your kind words and encouragement X
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That’s probably the kindest comment you’ll get. Enjoy it.
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LOL. Very eloquently put!
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Wow! Masterfully executed comeback, it felt like Ruthie was pulling one leg apart and Kez the other while you booted him square in the baws. Well done!
I know I’m relatively new to this site and I’ve noticed he gets a lot of tongue in cheek forbearance but sometimes Niko oversteps the mark and becomes even more of a complete fucking tube than is usual for him.
I’m unable to register likes on this site but consider this as an add on.
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Dave. Just to put you in the picture…Niko’s been with us since the very beginning, back in 2009… along with Conan and John Brownlie. I think all the rest of the original commentators have moved on. (Correct me if I’m wrong!)
So, we take the attitude that he’s a unionist, but he’s OUR unionist (like keeping a canary, y’know). And yes, sometimes he oversteps the vitriol, but I doubt he means it.
He’s got a lovely dog who’s a staunch supporter of indy too, so that makes him OK…
🙂
Not sure why you can’t “like”. This site is an absolutely nightmare for things going wrong!
Sorry about it anyway…
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With Munguin bringing on his pals like this, we can’t lose! Gaun yersel, wee man!
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Abu, of course, is in Malaysia so, he’ll be in bed right now. He said he’ll answer posts in the morning (his morning!).
For my money, he’s on the nail with this. Anyone who didn’t think that Brexit changed the state of play, in so many ways, is daft as a brush (Niko, that means you.) And anyone who thinks that May hasn’t played a blinder for our side needs their head looking at.
For information, Abu has been a mate since way back in the first campaign, when he stopped by Dundee on a short visit to Scotland. He was and is passionate about independence. We met up (the three of us), and hit it off and we’ve kept in touch since then. He’s hopefully coming back next year to Scotland and I hope we’ll get the opportunity to leaflet together (as well as explore some of the railways he’s passionate about).
Because of this post, Soppy Sunday will be a bit late this week, but I promise that it will be up by lunchtime Sunday (Scottish, not Malaysian, time).
🙂
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He also knows a lot more about pre-nationalisation railway systems in Scotland than I ever will. I would like to ask him about diagrams or kits for Y9 0-4-0 ST in 7mm scale. I doubt that makes any sense to anyone but our good friend.
Just ignore this if you don’t understand it. It has nowt to do with politics.
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I’m sure he’ll read it Douglas and make some sense of it.
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My first love has always been maps. They tell you so many hidden facts if you know how to analyse them. Google Maps is a godsent thing. I got interested in the railway lines because I saw these former lines scarring the landscape via it. The further I dug the more I was astounded by the fact that Scotland (and the rest of the UK) had an extensive railway network. Then I got to the trams. My god the opportunity lost in the name of short-sightedness. Sad to say that is the limit of my interest in railway. I am sure miniature railway is expensive over there, so it will be more expensive and a tad too odd ahahaha. If I were interested it will always be the Class A4 (Bittern in particular). Now that is a train worth splurging over, in real life or otherwise.
Talking about subject matter, one of the things I wish to write/read is about dialects and accents in Scotland and in the UK. I find this absolutely fascinating. The North/South divide has some basis in it. If you look at historical maps, Cumberland, Westmoreland and the liberty of Tynedale were Scottish up to the early Norman time. The counties, Northumberland and Durham were involved in every single Northern rebellion and remained Jacobite to the very end. Why is that so?
If you go a further back, and juxtapose the Hadrian’s Wall and Danelaw areas to the dialects spoken, it will start making sense. There seems to be a correlation (which I cannot fully explain) that the events that cause these distinctions really did impact the psyche of the folks living there. Somehow those folks there became different from the Southerners and this was/is reflected by the dialects spoken. This is also particular to the curious case of Oswestry. Of the clips I watch, one cannot help but conclude that the the accent is quite Welsh. Why is this so? Oswestry was part of the Welsh Marches that was casually incorporated in England during Elizabeth I’s time. Oswestry was just one of the territories lost. On the map you will see lots of Welsh place names east of the current Welsh Border.
Thats why I value maps and accents. They are markers of things long gone/wished to be forgotten. Why do you think the BBC & establishment are so keen on RP?
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My son in law is into trains and suggests the following,
http://www.peediemodels.com/
Peedie models weblink.
and
https://slatersplastikard.com/linePage.php?code=7L009
This is not quiet the right loco, but it is a related class and could be converted. An alternative idea might be to have someone 3D print the right body to fit the kits chassis. Try Peedie models on Orkney, Paul is designing a loco body for me at a very nice price.
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You adoring fan base, 1770 and counting, will wait patiently.
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Absolutely astonished that you are not up there with the big guys, for this is a wonderful site.
Would you mind if I mentioned your goodness elsewhere?
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I’d be happy for you to promote the site, Douglas, but I don’t think it has the intellectual rigour of some of the other sites around. SGP, Wings, Etc.
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I’ve been a Munguin follower since 2014 – and I live in Malaysia! More power to your elbow. Your site may not be as ‘rigorous’ as some (that I also follow) but it has a unique quality I would call humanist that I really appreciate. Broad interests. In some way, a Renaissance man! and notwithstanding, indeed enhanced by, the way you occasionally lose your cool and let rip at some egregious Unionist idiocy or arrogance. Keep going! (in Malay: teruskan!)
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Well, lawrenceab. It’s nice to speak to you after all this time, and thank you for your kind words.
LOL we try to keep it cool here, but yes, sometimes we just have to let fly at some of the more idiotic nonsense that comes our way from London, or wherever. 🙂
Thanks again…and don’t be a stranger.
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I have to disagree about resurrecting the ancient Parliament of Scotland. That was an ancient House of Lords, packed with aristocrats, bishops and a few elected, but mostly appointed, commissioners(some of whom had to share their vote with each other!). And of course, it infamously sold Scotland out. Such a body could not possibly have represented the Scottish people any better than the Lords represents Britain.
If the current Holyrood system is unfit, it could be changed. But we should look to the future, not to the past. What does your dream parliament look like? Mine would probably be one third constituency MPs, one third list MPs and one third random selection(in the style of jury duty, with similar eligibility and disqualification requirements).
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The point I was trying to make was about the body itself, not the composition. As much as I appreciate the current Scottish Parliament, it is not the Scottish Parliament that was adjourned in 1707. This current Parliament was created as a semblance of the old one, a mirage to placate the Scot into believing that democracy has finally returned to Scotland in 1997. That’s why there are murmuring of curbing/abolishing it. You can never do that to the Parliament of 1707. This is my reasoning of resurrecting the Parliament of 1707.
As for the composition of the Parliament, once we get it back it we can decide whatever composition we wish. Personally I like the German model; if not that the Irish one. However the ratio of M(S)P should be lowered to 1 M(S)P<20,000 voters. At current population levels, there should be around 266 M(S)P.
The more pressing issue is the state of local democracy. Before the Local Government (Scotland) Act 1973, Scotland a version of local government that made more sense geographically and culturally:
I think this is why local government government elections are treated with indifference. Electors cannot identify with them and/or see the benefit. I have to agree with some who called for greater powers to be devolved to local government. I see local governments as a training ground for competence in administration; if you can't run a small area, how do you suppose you are able to run a country? This though, fit with Whitehall's agenda of centralising every single power they can get their hands on.
One small note on this matter. The Treaty of Union guaranteed 70+ Scottish burghs a representation in Westminster Parliament (as a continuation of their right from the Scottish Parliament). Through subsequent reforms of the Westminster Parliament, they lost their representation and finally abolished in 1973 via the above mentioned Act. This is a clear breach of the terms of the Treaty.
For the reasons above, this is why we must resurrect the Parliament 1707. Anything less is unacceptable.
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You might wish to connect with Paul Kavanagh of Wee Ginger Dug fame re matters linguistic and cartographical apropos identity. Am sure Tris and Munguin could help effect that.
Again and despite what the resident BritNat troll with fond memories of the Ottoman empire despite him being, purportedly, of proud Greek ancestry has to say, I’ll say it again, a cracking article (which I’ve shared widely) and lays a basis for further fleshing out (worth reading on Craig Murray’s blogspot is his call for a National Assembly akin to the French precedent of the French Revolution as well as other global examples in the struggles for self-determination).
Thank you again
David
PS And to that troll, Niko, I say Yannis Varoufakis in parting.
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Well, I don;t actually know the Dug, but happy to do anything I can along those lines.
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I understand the legal and spiritual points, but what does ‘resurrecting the 1707 Parliament’ mean in practice? Abolishing Holyrood and bringing the 59 MPs back to Edinburgh to form the core of a new Parliament in the same building the current SP resides in? Or adding them on as a second chamber, possibly with primacy?
It’d much simpler to finish the process of devolution – abolish the 59 MPs and “devolve” the Reserved powers to Holyrood. That IS resurrecting the wholly sovereign Scottish Parliament in practice.
In any case, the legal authority of those Scottish MPs to Westminister has withered away to almost nothing. Power unused is power lost. If they had the authority, it would’ve kicked in during the Scotland Act process last year, when we had 56-58 of 59 Scottish MPs defeated repeatedly. It did not stop Thatcher from enacting her policies in Scotland. The Treaty of Union has been violated so many times it makes a sieve look water-tight.
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In Thatcher’s day there were 72 MPs
In the end 4 countries being represented in one parliament will only work if there is around equal representation. If you add the Celtic countries’ representation together it doesn’t make a dent in the English majority.
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Thank you for the kind comments. Sorry of the slightly late replies. I got sidetrack by a short documentary of the Elizabethan Express Steam Train and reading comments on Wings.
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for*…I blame it on my sickness
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Thank you for that.
John.
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Erm… they aren’t much like that anymore, Abu.
😦
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What, no orangutans? There’s always Niko I suppose…
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Conan
Back at you
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They’ll be here as soon as I find them and photograph them and upload them… It’s a long way to Sumatra!
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Excellent post. I’ve been writing something on the subject but can’t follow that so into the computer round bin! I’ll even forgive a later Soppy Sunday – as long as it comes. Caught the headlines of Sky News where they’ve been talking to “real Scots” who funnily enough didn’t like Nicola’s speech yesterday. Didn’t bother to watch the stich-up. Equally funnily, the Guardian went to Clackmannshire and found no-one who wanted another referendum. Sigh.
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Just about to work on it now,PP.
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Perhaps you dangerous extremist nats
Can explain what happened to much vaunted sovereignty
Of the Scottish peoples.
Which if you recall was expressed in a snp organised
Referendum and now is being tossed aside by the snp
And trumped by another snp demand ,
So now pray tell does the scots sovereignty reside
With the people as you nats said for decades or with
The Scottish Parliament ,
If with the former the Scots have decided if with
The latter how does that fit with the snp sovereignty
Of the people mantra.
snp/ nats absolute and total undemocratic hypocrites
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Oh dear Niko, it’s been explained so many times to you over the past couple of years, yet you haven’t understood any of it. I’ll try again.
The Scottish people were methodically lied to over the period of the referendum by Better Together, eagerly aided by the mainstream media. The SNP were elected on a manifesto of another referendum being held if one of the main promises – staying in the EU – should be broken. It was. Another referendum will happen Niko.
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There you have it, Niko. Simple as can be.
Get Taz to explain it to you.
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Oh the unionists lied but the snp/nats didn’t
Really price of independent oil just for 1
Obviously there’s more
Anyway who is sovereign snp parliament or
The Scottish people referendum 2014
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Lie or projection? It’s obviously a lie when the SNP do it, but a projection when the UK government does.
Click to access DECC_2014_Oil_Price_Projections_Peer_Review_Report.pdf
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Different rules for the UK
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I agree with you Niko.
Perhaps the Kingdom of England needs to have a referendum on “Should England be an independent country?”
The xenophobes will probably win and we Scots will be resigned to our fate of too wee, too poor, too smartass.
Ha. I have you there.
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Perhaps on behalf of unionists, Niko, you can throw some light on trade negotiations . We are continually told by unionists that, in the event of independence, trade between Scotland and the rUK would either cease or be the subject of stringent sanctions. Yet we are told by your leader, the blessed Mrs May, that it is possible, even likely, that the UK can be independent of the EU but that favourable continuation of trading rights can be achieved? Do you see the have your cake and eat it anomaly there?
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I suspect that Niko and Mrs May are sharing that secret and that it’s THEIR secret.
I’m sure Gordon Brown can probably explain it though.
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Now it not the time to tell us of their affair.
Saw a good comment about Brown coming to lecture us. ‘Dejavow’
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LOL. Brilliant!
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Yeah but who can understand or believe him.
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@Alan (for some bloody reason I cannot reply at the comment)
The intention is to dissolve the Union. We have to do it properly, that is to withdraw all links and claims of sovereignty over Scotland. The Union came into being with the inclusion of Scottish MPs into Westminster Parliament and it shall be dissolved by removing them from the same. If Westminster Parliament has any remnant of claims over Scottish sovereignty, it will be hanging over our head for the rest of our lives.
The current Scottish Parliament gets its authority from Westminster, hence the phrase “power devolved is power retained”. You had actually highlighted the core problem of devolution. It is a catch-22. How is greater devolution to be achieved, when those in power refused to do so every single time?
When independence is declared, the only competent legislative body will be the current Scottish Parliament. I am pretty sure that there will be a national convention/consultation for a written constitution. The current Scottish Parliament will only be a caretaker parliament and will eventually be dissolved in favour of the future one. For the time being, the shape and composition of the future Scottish Parliament are moot.
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More power to Nichola. I am jumping up and down with excitement and laughing at the conniptions of the Yoons.
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Ouch!
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